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https://www.ryandawson.org/p/thomas-massie-smeared-a-week-before

Дауcон в эфире у Сулаймана: дискредитация Томаса Мэсси перед выборами, Иран, саммит Трамп–Си в Пекине и Ормузский пролив

Источник: https://www.ryandawson.org/p/thomas-massie-smeared-a-week-before

Краткое содержание

Транскрипт фиксирует разговорный сегмент стрима, где Райан Дауcон выходит к ведущему (Сулайман), доктору Атусе и финансовому аналитику Саймону. Беседа покрывает несколько актуальных сюжетов: рамку причин американо-израильской войны против Ирана, компромат в адрес конгрессмена-республиканца Томаса Мэсси накануне праймериз, ход военных событий в Ливане, готовящийся саммит Трамп–Си в Пекине и поведение Китая в иранском кризисе, а также сообщение Reuters о согласии США и Китая в вопросе сбора Ираном пошлин в Ормузском проливе.

«Epstein Fury»: основная рамка Дауcона

Главный тезис Дауcона прежний: «все геополитические аналитики согласны — мы воевали с Ираном из-за Израиля». Никаких «банковских кабалов» — это «израильское давление». Трампа, по его утверждению, «полностью захватил Epstein class», и он сам именует это «Epstein Fury». Подкрепляющий аргумент — старая книга Биньямина Нетаньяху со списком стран, в которые он хотел вовлечь США; этот список, по Дауcону, шаг за шагом и реализуется. Эта рамка применяется ко всем последующим темам выпуска и фактически вытесняет более локальные объяснения событий.

Дискредитация Томаса Мэсси накануне выборов

Один из центральных сюжетов — публичный наброс компромата на конгрессмена Томаса Мэсси примерно за неделю до выборов: «какая-то бывшая девушка», «не вникал в детали», «расчёт типичный — пока разберутся, голосование уже пройдёт». В прогнозных рынках, по реплике собеседника, Мэсси «опустился минимум на пункт» и может проиграть, несмотря на то, что инкумбенты обычно переизбираются с вероятностью около 98%. По версии Дауcона, в его округ закачаны деньги (Шелдон Адельсон, Пол Сингер) и работают AIPAC, UDP, «Friends of Israel» и «Christian Zionist» группы; всё это, по его утверждению, «тот же круг» — «Epstein list», который «выбирает конгрессменов» и «обнуляет карьеру тем, кто выйдет за линию». Мэсси, по его словам, помогал добиться публикации эпштейновских материалов и «должен бы автоматически переизбираться вечно за охоту на детских хищников», но публичный наброс лоббистов всё равно работает — и фактически вынуждает их «показать карты», открыто заливая бюджет соперника. Дауcон фиксирует тезис, что «I в AIPAC означает Israel», и настаивает: это лобби иностранного государства, а не «еврейское лобби» как таковое; нюанс собственной формулировки автор оговаривает прямо.

Ливан и «полу-победа Хезболлы»

Кратко комментируется утренняя сводка по Ливану: «Хезболла получила полу-победу над Израилем», ситуация, в которой «дроны снимают другие дроны». Дауcон отмечает, что Израиль «получает по морде», но проблема в том, что месть «как всегда» обрушивается на ливанских мирных жителей.

Саммит Трамп–Си и Ормузский пролив

Главный геоэкономический фокус разговора — предстоящая встреча Трампа с Си Цзиньпином в Пекине и аномальная мотивация американской стороны: Трамп, Хегсет и «little Narco Rubio» уже несколько раз публично предлагали Китаю «помочь США открыть Ормузский пролив» — мол, «мы делаем это для них». Дауcон коротко возвращает к фактам: пролив был открыт, пока США не нанесли удар по Ирану; Китай не будет помогать США исправлять ситуацию, пока сам спокойно получает свою нефть. Он перечисляет, что Китай и Россия не будут помогать Ирану расстаться ни с обогащённым ураном (нужен как сдерживание против ядерных ударов по самим себе), ни с возможностью закрыть пролив. «Безопасность строится на силе, а не на обещаниях». Иран, по логике автора, держит две вещи: запас обогащённого урана как неопределённость относительно ядерного варианта и возможность закрытия пролива.

Отдельный поворот — публикация Reuters о том, что США и Китай «согласились», что «ни одна страна не должна взимать пошлины за судоходство в Ормузском проливе»; вопрос обсуждался Марко Рубио и министром иностранных дел КНР Ван И накануне саммита. Дауcон обещает проверить азиатские источники, поскольку, во-первых, фактический «toll booth» не униформирован (для одних судов проход открыт, для других нет), а во-вторых, Иран требует репараций, и эта часть обсуждения, возможно, опущена в публикации. Его собственная позиция: пошлины — обычная практика (как Суэц или Панама), и логично делить выручку с Оманом, которому также принадлежит вода. Условие отказа от сбора, по нему, — снятие санкций и разморозка активов; пока этого нет — он «готов платить $5 за галлон», если страны Залива и Израиль из-за пошлины несут издержки. Финальная структурная ремарка — «потребители всё равно заплатят»: даже если изначально ноша лежит на трейдерах, они переложат стоимость в цену.

В заключительной части — анонс ближайшего материала Дэна Билзеряна («banger»).

Значимость и оговорки

Эпизод хорошо иллюстрирует доминирующий нарратив, в котором действует Дауcон: он сводит большинство сюжетов в одну рамку («Epstein Fury» — захват американской политики произраильским лобби и «эпштейновским кругом») и применяет её к войне с Ираном, к атакам на Мэсси и к закулисью саммита Трамп–Си. Сильные элементы: проверяемые ссылки (публикация Reuters о согласии США и КНР по пошлинам в Ормузе, обсуждение Рубио и Ван И, реальные объёмы расходов Адельсона и Сингера в США), а также фактологически верное наблюдение, что AIPAC по уставу — лобби иностранного государства. Спорные элементы: обобщения «AIPAC = эпштейновский список», «Трамп полностью захвачен», уверенные утверждения о результатах военных столкновений в Ливане без независимых данных, и характерная для Дауcона лексика по адресу политических оппонентов («little Narco Rubio»), которая снижает аналитический вес высказываний и должна оцениваться отдельно от фактической базы.

🧾 Транскрипт (формат)

Thomas Massie Smeared a week before election, Iran news, Trump China

Источник: https://www.ryandawson.org/p/thomas-massie-smeared-a-week-before

Suleman has people that he interviews he has military experts military analysis he has people who've got like a lot of contacts like in Lebanon they say like Ryan Dawson and then he has financial experts and Simon is the financial expert that's his bread and butter um so i will say that just to vouch for home let me go to Dr Othusa and then i will

um let you jump in afterwards Ryan's here as well welcome Ryan to the stage Ryan how you doing i'm good i can't see him it's almost like i said his name and he

appeared he was here i was i was listening they were blaming Beatrix for everything that i heard it all yeah on all those uh geopolitical analysts and military analysts agree we were at war with iran because of israel Not because of some banking cabal or anything like that where they're from Israeli pressure. Trump has been completely captured by the Epstein class. That's why we call it Epstein Fury. It was predictable. Netanyahu wrote a book about all the countries he wanted us to invade and we've been doing it. is crystal clear don't have to change predictions or anything don't have to switch rationales as to which factions winning it's always the Zionist very clear Sully I want to know when our interview we did yesterday is going to drop because I made a

bunch of predictions about China I was scheduled for 2pm Eastern tomorrow no yeah

2pm Eastern tomorrow I wanted it before he hits China All right. It is what it is. I can do it.

I can do it at 430 today, but then it's just going to be like, I wanted more people to see it.

Well, give it to me so I can put it on my people at least. It's fine. Whatever. Talk to me later about your shop stuff. I'll help you out with that.

Yeah, I appreciate it. Yeah, I need to get that sorted because we've got some merch we want to get out.

All right.

Cool.

You should get Jeff Curry on to some of the economic things. Who? Jeff Curry.

Okay, I'll take a look at him for sure. How's things anyway? You doing good?

Oh, well, Hezbollah got a nice semi victory on Israel this morning, my time, which is always fun. It's amazing. They're even able to film drones with other drones. That's how bad Israel's getting smacked. The problem is they always take the revenge out on Lebanese civilians Yeah They do unfortunately You see Thomas Massey like he's starting to loot they came out with

some BS scandal What's the allegation?

oh some ex-girlfriend or something I didn't pay attention to it I'm like oh the timing you know just before the election you're gonna come out with some false accusation because you know by the time it gets resolved it'll be too late yeah

exactly that's why they do it that's why they do it um but I saw in the um in the polls in the prediction markets he's like dropped down now right he's he's losing

Well, prediction, whatever. We know who runs those two. He is down by at least a point, and he could lose. He's an incumbent. I mean, they have like a 98% return rate. But APAC and all the usual bell-ringing, wall-kissing suspects have piled on against them. Trump, too, because they own him. And they're going to try and push him out of office, and it looks like they're going to do it. And this is the guy that helped get the Epstein files released. He should be like automatic reelected for infinity going after child predators. Nah, they don't care. They do enough ads in his district, you know, just lying and bashing about him. Adelson's put in millions. Paul Singer's put in millions. And when you say APAC and UDP, Friends of Israel, Christian Zionists, all these little groups, that's just the billionaire Jew money anyway. Like, who do you think is giving money to the APAC? Who do you think is giving money to UDP?

It's the same clique. It's the Epstein list. Like, these people run our politicians. They choose our congressmen. You get out of line, your career's over. and but at least he's forcing them to show their hand like they've dumped so much money into his opponents coffers openly it's like they ought to be registered under farah but it's not like oh it's not an Israeli lobby it's a Jewish lobby bullshit it's an Israeli lobby the I in AIPAC stands for Israel it's got nothing to do with Jews is what would that even mean anyway like it's a lobby for a foreign state for foreign interest so that we continue to go to war for Israel which they wouldn't need and wouldn't have to exist if it was all just for the banks yeah and uh what

about what's your thoughts on this uh China-Iran summit this seems like there's a lot of uh he's taking the entire oligarchs with him

Trump is so stupid like we you can kind of guess at what he's about to do based on things he's already said you know prudence is king remember him Hegseth and little Narco Rubio they've all repeated this point why doesn't China help us open the Strait of Hormuz we're doing it for them it was already open before you attacked you're the whole reason it's closed that part of the story doesn't dawn on them Like no, China's not going to help you reopen the Strait of Hormuz because China's getting its oil. It's allowed out. But no, they're not going to do that. No, you're not going to get uranium from Iran. You had that. That opportunity is gone. Russia, China, nobody is getting that out. because they need that as a deterrent against getting nuked themselves. When they talk about all these security guarantees, like, okay, the blah, blah, nice words. Security is based on power, not promises. And the leverage that Iran has is two things, holding onto that enriched uranium so you don't know whether they're going to build a bomb or not and closing the strait.

They can't let go of either one. And I don't know what he expects China to do about that or why they would do anything about that. uh and then as far as the trade deals go who he's always goes in threatening tariffs and this and that and it's just like he goes right against his own interests he thinks he's Lincoln I guess he kind of is Lincoln wrecked the economy too uh I don't expect this meeting to go very well they rolled out the red carpet for him because they know he's a narcissistic maniac and they know how to butter him up but I wouldn't expect much out of this as far as Iran goes. China's not going to help the United States get out of the mess. They love watching the US blow through their interceptors and all their standoff munitions. It makes less of a threat to themselves. Watching America run into a brick wall face first, Did you see the report? I forgot from whom the report was now but something along the lines of China has agreed with America that Iran shouldn't be charging at all on the Strait of Hormuz and will not be allowed to do so was Axios who said that and one second let me tell you I think it was Reuters I'll

just read it out to you I've got it here so basically Reuters reported it and said that the US and China have agreed that no country should charge shipping tolls in the Strait of Hormuz according to the State Department the issue was discussed by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chinese Foreign Minister wanky ahead of a trump she summit in Beijing and Reuters reported that and said that's coming out the State Department.

I'm going to look in the Asian media and see what that actually means, because the toll booth isn't even uniform it's like these ships can go these ships cannot do Iran has demanded reparations and I wonder if that. that part of the discussion has been omitted like yeah if you guys would just pay them directly then we don't need a toll you have a toll on the Suez Canal you have a toll on the Panama Canal you have a toll like this isn't unusual for uh them i mean i agree they should probably split it with omens since that water belongs to both but whatever we'll see um i'd like it there not to be a toll it would have uh I don't want gas prices going up for myself or anyone else. But I understand why Iran would do that and has the ability and right to do it. I mean, rights, whatever, like if you have the ability to do it, you can do it. Right. We live in a might makes right world. That's what America has set up as a standard.

There is no international law. There is no anything. So it's just like if they can do it, then they will. with the reason they're able to do it and they never did it before it's because you attack them during negotiations and you cause millions of dollars in damage and these Gulf states assisted in the attack so they're going to pay the price if you're not going to live sanctions and unfreeze assets, then they got to get that money some other way so If they're going to lift the toll, then you've got to relieve all sanctions and unfreeze all assets and move back to the Atlantic. And then maybe they won't need a toll because they'd have their own money back. But he isn't doing that. So as long as the conditions are the way they are, then I'm saying I'm awful. I'll happily fill up on gas at $5 a gallon or whatever if I know the Gulf states and Israel are suffering from it. That is something to point out, too.

They're going to pay initially, but ultimately the consumer pays because they're going to pass the burden of, oh, if you're going to make us pay a toll, then we're just going to increase the price. Ultimately, it's always consumers that pay at the end.

I mean, yeah, let's see what the China thing is, because if that's true, that's not great, right? Is it?

and it might be true it's just everything I just it's gotten to the point where they lie so much every day that you go you have to check what did Iran say what did China say not Reuters said they said I need to see them say it what what's missing

because they always lie yeah true um anything else Ryan any other news

uh yeah you'll see soon there's uh something about to drop uh from Dan Bilzeria and uh it's a banger you just wait cool okay uh let's go to uh

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um like sulaiman has people that he interviews he has military experts military analysis he has people who've got like a lot of contacts like in lebanon they say like ryan dawson and then he has financial experts and simon is the financial expert that's his bread and butter um so i will say that just to vouch for hum let me go to dr atusa and then i will um let you jump in afterwards she's been for a while ryan's here as well welcome ryan to the stage ryan how are you doing i'm good i can't see him it's almost like i said his name and he appeared he was here i was i was listening they were blaming beatrix for everything that i heard it all yeah on all those uh geopolitical analysts and military analysts agree we were at war with iran because of israel not because of some banking cabal or anything like that where they're from israeli pressure trump has been completely captured by the epstein class that's why we call it epstein fury it was predictable netanyahu wrote a book about all the countries he wanted us to invade and we've been doing it it's crystal clear don't have to change predictions or anything don't have to switch rationales as to which factions winning it's always the zionist very clear sully i want to know when our interview we did yesterday is gonna drop because i made a bunch of predictions about china i was scheduled it for 2 p.m eastern tomorrow no yeah 2 p.m eastern tomorrow i wanted it before he hits china all right it is what it is i can do it i can do it at 4 30 today but then it's just gonna be like i wanted more people to see it uh well give it to me so i can put it on my people at least um it's fine whatever talk to me later about your uh shop stuff i'll help you out with that yeah i appreciate it yeah i need to get it sorted because uh we've got some merch we want to get out all right cool you should get uh jeff curry on to some of the economic things who jeff curry okay yeah i'll take look at him for sure how's things anyway you doing good oh well hezbollah i got a nice semi victory on israel this morning my time which is always fun it's amazing they're even able to film drones with other drones that's how bad israel's getting uh smacked uh the problem is they always take the revenge out on lebanese civilians yeah they do unfortunately you see thomas massey like he's starting to loot they came out with some bs scandal what's the what's the allegation oh some ex-girlfriend or something i didn't pay attention to it i'm like oh the timing you know just before the election you're gonna come out with some false accusation because you know by the time it gets resolved it'll be too late yeah exactly that's why they do it that's why they do it um but i thought in the um in the polls and the prediction markets he's like dropped down now right he's he's losing well prediction whatever we know who runs those two it's uh he is down by at least a point and he could lose he's an incumbent i mean they have like a 98 return rate but a pack and all the usual bell ringing wall kissing suspects have piled on against them trump too because they own him and they're gonna try and push him out of office and it looks like they're gonna do it and this is the guy that helped get the epstein files released he should be like automatic re-elected for infinity going after child predators nah they they don't care they do enough ads in his district you know just lying and bashing about him adelson's put in millions paul singer's put in millions and when you say apac and udp friends of israel christian zionist all these little groups that's just the billionaire uh jew money anyway like who do you think is giving money to the apac who do you think giving money to udp it's the same click it's it's the epstein list like these people run our politicians they choose our congressman you get out of line your career's over and but at least he's forcing them to show their hand like they've dumped so much money into his opponents coffers openly it's like they ought to be registered under farah but it's not like oh it's not an israeli lobby it's a jewish lobby it's an israeli lobby the i in apac stands for israel it's got nothing to do with jews is what would that even mean anyway like it's a lobby for a foreign state for foreign interest so that we continue to go to war for israel which they wouldn't need and wouldn't have to exist if it was all just for the banks yeah and uh what about what's your thoughts on this uh china iran summit this seems like there's a lot of uh he's taking the entire oligarchs with him trump is so stupid like we you can kind of guess at what he's about to do based on things he's already said you know prudence is king remember him hegseth and little narco rubio they've all repeated this point why doesn't china help us open the strait of hormus we're doing it for them it was already open before you attacked you're the whole reason it's closed that part of the story doesn't dawn on them like no china's not going to help you reopen the strait of hormus because china's getting its oil it's allowed out uh but no they're not going to do that no you're not going to get uranium from iran you had that that opportunity is gone russia china nobody is getting that out because they need that as a deterrent against getting nuked themselves when they talk about all these security guarantees like okay the blah blah nice words security is based on power not promises and the leverage that iran has is two things holding on to that enriched uranium so you don't know whether they're going to build a bomb or not and closing the strait they can't let go of either one so and i don't know what he expects china to do about that or why they would do anything about that uh and then as far as the trade deals go who he's always goes in threatening tariffs and this and that and it's just like he goes right against his own interests he thinks he's lincoln i guess he kind of is lincoln wreck the economy too uh i don't expect this meeting to go very well they rolled out the red carpet for him because they know he's a narcissistic maniac and they know how to butter him up but i wouldn't expect much out of this as far as uh iran goes like china's not going to help the united states get out of the mess they love watching the u.s blow through their uh interceptors and all their standoff munitions like it makes less of a threat to themselves i mean watching uh america run into a brick wall face first i mean i think the chinese just sat there drinking tea and laughing like why why would they stop us when you you know when your enemy's making a mess let them continue you know why intervene did you see the report um i forgot from whom the report was now but something along the lines of china has agreed with america that iran shouldn't be charging at all on the street and will not be allowed to do so was this axios who said that um one second let me tell you i think it was uh reuters um i'll just read it out to you i've got it here so basically um reuters reported it and said um that uh the u.s and china have agreed that no country should charge shipping tolls in the strait of humus according to the state department the issue was discussed by u.s secretary of state marco rubio and chinese foreign minister wang yi ahead of a trump she summit in beijing and reuters reported that and said uh that's coming out the state department uh i'm going to look in the asian media and see what that actually means because the toll booth isn't even uniform it's like these ships can go these ships cannot iran has demanded reparations and i wonder if that uh that part of the discussion has been omitted like yeah if you guys would just pay them directly then we don't need a toll you have a toll on the suez canal you have a toll on the panama canal you have a toll like this isn't unusual for uh them i mean i agree they should probably split it with omens since that water belongs to both but whatever we'll see um i'd like it there not to be a toll it would have uh i don't want gas prices going up for myself or anyone else but i understand why iran would do that and has the ability and right to do it i mean rights whatever like if you have the ability to do it you can do it right we live in a might makes right world that's what america has set up as a standard there is no international law there is no anything so it's just like if they can do it then they will but they're really able to do it and they never did it before it's because you attack them during negotiations uh and you cause millions of dollars in damage and these gulf states assisted in the attack so they're going to pay the price if you're not going to lift sanctions and unfreeze assets then they got to get that money some other way so if they're going to lift the toll then you've got to relieve all sanctions and unfreeze all assets and move you know back to the atlantic and then maybe they won't need a toll because they'd have their own money back but he isn't doing that so as long as the conditions are the way they are then i'm saying i'm awful i'll happily fill up uh uh on gas at five dollars a gallon or whatever if i know the gulf states and israel are suffering from it that is something to point out too it's they're going to pay initially but ultimately the consumer pays because they're going to pass the burden of oh if you're going to pay make us pay a toll then we're just going to increase the price like ultimately it's always consumers that pay at the end i mean yeah let's see what the china thing is because if that's true that's not great right and it might be true it's just everything i just it's gotten to the point where they lie so much every day that you go you have to check what did iran say what did china say not reuters said they said they said i need to see them say it what what's missing because they always lie yeah true um anything else ryan any other news uh yeah you'll see soon there's uh something about to drop uh from dan bilzeria and uh it's a banger just wait cool okay uh let's go to uh